In that post I touched on the fact that we cannot count on alternative or renewable sources of energy to bail us out of this predicament:

… And while some renewable energy sources hold promise for supplying some energy, it is likely that in the short term we won’t be able to come anywhere close to meeting demand. For reasons I won’t get into here […] hydrogen fuel cells and biofuels are not answers but rather dangerous distractions.

Last summer Kurt Cobb wrote an article (which I just came across now) that very nicely explains the point I was getting at. He points out that David Goodstein called this the ‘rate of conversion’ problem.

Here is Kurt’s article about the ‘rate of conversion’ problem, which you should consider our required reading assignment 

Here are pics of Matthew from the ‘08 season. He still loves playing!

I implore you to read this. Go do it, now. I don’t mind you leaving, and will be waiting patiently for you to return.

[And if you really cannot bring yourself to spend half an hour reading the whole article, then at least hit the most important part, which is the end: search on “All these strands of evidence” and go from there.]

Welcome back.

I remember seeing that article years ago, but back then it didn’t click with me; in light of things we (finally) understand now, it takes on a whole new meaning, doesn’t it?

The bottom line is that our society is consuming resources in a way that is completely unsustainable. We know from the history of other, long-dead civilizations what inevitably happens when resources are over-utilized; it is downright frightening. So far, all indications are that we are marching directly down this well-worn path. The really scary thing about this particular version of the nightmare is that, for the first time ever, we are doing this on a global scale.

We are depleting natural resources on so many fronts that the news is becoming numbing. Fish populations worldwide are crashing due to overfishing; extinction rates across the planet are unheard of in mankind’s history; we will very likely hit peak production of oil in this decade; there are impending production peaks of a number of other important resources over the next several decades (phosphorous, coal, some metals).

Even those of us in the ‘advanced’ world will soon experience food shortages stemming from soil depletion (due to agricultural misuse), fertilizer shortages (due to peak oil), and water shortages (due to overuse). We are witnessing a global financial meltdown that is due at least in part to rising energy costs. And our energy use is causing climate change that will, at the very least, exacerbate some of the above problems.

Now, with the onset of globally decreasing energy supplies, we are beginning a long (bumpy) ride down to a lower-consumption society. One implication of this is that a centuries-old economic assumption — growth in the long term — is no longer valid. There will be areas of growth, of course, but the days in which a long-term investment in a broad range of stocks will be profitable are drawing to a close.

Tied as it is to the depletion of the resources upon which we depend, Growth (as in global economic growth) will soon become a bad word. The decades-long trend of globalization is coming to an end, and everything about our lives will become much more local. The operational term of the coming centuries will be Sustainable.

What is most important now is to focus on the positive aspects of where we are headed and how to avoid the very possible catastrophes.

We need to face the fact that our children will have fewer material possessions than we have, and our grandchildren far fewer. In my opinion the overarching goal we should have as a society is to provide our descendants with the basics for a full life: water, food, shelter, personal safety, community, freedom, the opportunity for spirituality; and above all, the resources to pass on these opportunities to successive generations. That is ultimately what it means to be sustainable.

This means making some real sacrifices, now. The use of gasoline-powered vehicles has to drop dramatically. We need to eat more locally, and lower on the food chain. We each need to learn how to garden organically, and how to maintain the fertility of our land instead of wearing it out. We need to lower our thermostats in the winter and raise them in the summer, if we heat and cool at all. We need to travel long distances only rarely. We need to stop mindless consumption of goods. We need to live up to the adage “Use it up, wear it out, make it do or do without”. Awareness of our carbon footprint must go way up, as our footprints go way down.

We need to learn how to voluntarily limit our population (uhh, my bad, no more kids for me) or it will be limited for us in very undesirable ways (as it is already in some parts of the world).

Don’t kid yourself for a second that 1) politicians will lead the way out of this mess, or 2) technology will save us from it. On the first front, all politicians that have national exposure have exhibited complete ignorance of the reality or, to the extent that they understand the reality, will not participate in a discussion about it (because they understand that such a blunt discussion of the coming contraction is political death). On the second front: this is a complicated issue, and should be the subject of its own post. But it boils down to the fact that we will be running out of the very resources (especially energy) that could most help us manage a high-tech transition to lower energy. I’m convinced that the future is not one of mini-mansions powered by solar cells and everyone driving around in electric SUVs.

There is a saying: ‘We don’t inherit this world from our parents, we borrow it from our children.’ In less polite terms, to the extent that we don’t start radically conserving our resources, we are screwing over our own and our neighbors’ children and grandchildren. That doesn’t sound acceptable to me; how about you?

The positive aspects of where we’re headed? Yeah, there’s real potential. If we can learn to focus less on material possessions and more on the people, places, and nature around us, our lives (and those of our children) can become much more fulfilling.

But until we make some fundamental changes in our lifestyles, and stop using our resources in profoundly unsustainable ways, we should all consider ourselves

Honorary Graduates

of

The Easter Island School of Resource Management

Congratulations, everyone. And shame on us.

Now let’s get down to the hard individual and collective work of turning this situation around. The key word being NOW.

I have been aware of peak oil for almost a year now, and modestly doing what I can to prepare for what is coming in the next several decades. But every once in a while I come across something — like this paper — that knocks me off my feet.

When I first blogged about peak oil back in January, I asked whether in 50 years we would still be manufacturing electronics, and whether the internet would still be around. After reading Friedemann’s paper, I think 1) the relevant timeframe for my questions is more like 20 or 30 years, not 50, and 2) the answer to my questions may well be ‘No’.

This is a great paper, well worth 20 minutes of your time to read. Friedemann wanders around a bit in the beginning, citing plenty of alarming but relevant facts about the upcoming energy descent, but she finishes with a very strong argument that computers will not be with us for much longer, and that we should be thinking now about non-electronic preservation of knowledge for future generations. Even many of the books that are around now will not survive the century.

It can be frightening to think about a world without all of the things we take for granted: plenty of food, easy transportation, cheap electricity, relatively affordable housing, plentiful clothing, corrective lenses for our imperfect eyes, medicines to address many of our common ailments, electronics to keep us entertained, informed, and educated. But all of those things (and a thousand more) are the direct result of the nearly-free energy stores we discovered a while back (~1860) and have been burning up at an increasing rate.

We are currently living our lives at the top of an enormous house of cards that will soon be tumbling to the ground (and the house may come down much faster than it took to be built). Enjoy your computer and your ATM and your cable box and your router while you can. By the time my generation leaves this world, those will be things of the past.

So shouldn’t we spend some time and money figuring out how to pass on some basic learnings to future generations?

Older peak oil blog posts here, and lots of bookmarked articles here.

Since a timer to shut off a water heater during off-hours is pretty cheap (~$30), and I’ve read that using one of these is an effective way to cut energy consumption, I decided to get one. I got around to installing it this last weekend:

Right now it’s set to turn on a couple of hours before we get up, then turn off once everyone is out of the house in the morning. It turns on again in the evening for dishwashing and nighttime showers. All told, it will be on for about 8 hours a day. It has a manual switch that allows you to easily override the timer (say on the weekend, if you need a shower in the middle of the day); we just need to remember to hit the switch ahead of time.

Unfortunately, since the heater is on a 240 V circuit, I can’t trivially measure its consumption over long periods of time (like I can for appliances using a Kill-A-Watt). Yeah, I could wire something up to do this, but I’m not willing to put that much time into this investigation  ;-)  For the time being, I’ll have to judge effectiveness based on our total electricity consumption…

[My earlier audit was based on estimates of power consumption for the hot water heater and heater combined with measurements of most household appliances, tweaked to match actual consumption numbers from the power company.]

Something worth noting for the DIYer: I’ve done a modest amount of electrical work using 14 ga wire for typical circuits (ceiling fans, lights, etc.). This installation required 10 ga wiring, and the switch itself required working in some pretty tight areas. I had no idea how difficult it would be to wrestle this heavy wiring into place in those conditions… yikes!

Tropical Storm Hanna dumped a ton of water on us here in northern Virginia today.

Sugarland Creek runs through the woods behind our house. The creek overflowed its banks in a big way today, going higher than at any time since we moved here in 2000. Normally it is about 30 feet across, but right now it must be over 300 feet wide, and running very rapidly.

When we were checking it out at the peak of the flooding, we saw several deer (must have been trapped on a sudden island) struggling to make it to shore. A couple of them made it, and bolted by about 50 feet from us. Another deer was trapped, swimming wildly, in the middle of the creek. We couldn’t see her very clearly through the trees and the rain, and after a moment lost sight of her. I don’t know if she survived or not 

More pics in the gallery.

Update  9/11/08: Using the aerial photos on Google Maps, it looks like the floodwaters were about 250 feet wide at peak.

Deep Economy, by Bill McKibben

This book takes a long, hard look at the way that most of us in the developed countries of the world have been living in the last half century or so, why it isn’t sustainable or healthy, and what we can do to correct our course. The focus is on building resilient communities that can survive shocks to our larger society. It covers many of the same topics that James Kunstler does in The Long Emergency, but avoids Kunstler’s apocalyptic tone.¹ McKibben is totally peak oil aware, and this informs his writing. Highly recommended for everyone.

Animal, Vegetable, Miracle, by Barbara Kingsolver

This is a very readable story of a family that decided to live for one year exclusively (or nearly so) on locally grown foods. Mrs. Kingsolver is a great storyteller, and the book is entertaining whether or not you arrive at the door with a local-foods agenda in hand. You will read about her family and their adventure, their friends and neighbors; along the way you will learn why local foods are our future, and why we will come to respect and appreciate our farmers and our land (if we don’t already).

Toolbox for Sustainable City Living, by Scott Kellogg and Stacy Pettigrew

This is a relatively short (215 pgs) but very enlightening and intense work. It is packed with information that will prove extremely valuable in the near future, especially to those on the lower end of the socio-economic ladder. This book is about ‘radical’ sustainability and social justice: when you are mentally prepared to really make a difference, when you are ready to become truly green, this book will be waiting for you. They cover a lot of ground, albeit from the 5000 foot level: personal food production and water supplies, handling waste, generating energy, and even bioremediation (cleaning up contaminated areas so that they are suitable for living and food production). My only complaint is with the title of this book: in no way is this information useful only for those living in the city! The reference section is excellent, and I really enjoyed the illustrations by Juan Martinez.

Recommended? Yes, to the right audience. This book is kinda hardcore: I highly recommend it to those already peak oil aware and thinking hard about the things that they need to do in the next five or ten years. It is the most informative and forward-looking book I’ve come across in a long time. But if you’re a relative newbie to the issues around peak oil and radical sustainability, this book is probably too much for you right now; make a mental note of it and come back in a few months when the larger implications of peak oil have sunk in, and you are wondering about next steps.

Simple Prosperity, by David Wann

This book is in many ways similar to McKibben’s Deep Economy, and covers many of the same issues, but Wann writes in a more personal tone. He offers more of his own life experience, focuses more on the spiritual, and may at times come across as a bit preachy. Still, his message is right on, and I definitely recommend this book for general audiences. He is very well aware of limited fossil fuels, but these considerations don’t dominate his thinking.

Up next on my reading list is Richard Heinberg, although I’m very familiar with his views from online reading… but our local library system does not seem to carry his books… What’s up with that?  :-/

¹While Kunstler has proven long-sighted on a number of fronts, I’m hopeful that we will avoid the most dire of his collapse predictions. John Michael Greer provides another useful counterpoint…

When I did the calculation myself, I was shocked. You can get all the info you need from a few Google searches:

• A human doing sustained manual labor (say a 10 hour day) can supply something like 2 kCal / minute.
• A gallon of gasoline supplies about 124,000 BTU, or 31,000 kCal.

So how much energy is 31,000 kCal? It is a lot. Do the math, and you find that one gallon of gas supplies you with about as much output as having a manual laborer at your disposal 10 hours a day, 5 days a week, for about 5 weeks.

Holy crap!! And I can get a gallon of gasoline for only $4?! That means the pay rate for my mythical laborer is about 1.5 cents / hour. Sounds like a bargain to me…

If you also consider the other uses of petroleum products, like manufacturing plastics and agricultural inputs (fertilizer, pesticides), it seems that our increasingly wanton use of fossil fuels this last 50 or so years has been an absolute orgy of excess. We’ve been rapidly using up an incredibly valuable — but very finite — resource that we should have been mostly saving for future generations.

Whether we like it or not, it now looks like that orgy is going to be winding down over the next decade or two. Our society, which has never been told ‘No!’, is about to have its accustomed way of life rudely taken away.

It has been a wild, extravagant, once in a (planet’s) lifetime experience.

I hope the hangover is not a killer.